EHS Newsletter No. 3 April 17, 2026
- Kate McKiernan
- Apr 17
- 4 min read
 FRONT PAGE NEWS March Performance Levels Off as Uncertainty Builds Despite the warm weather, March saw a pause in the modest sales growth trends that were emerging at the start of the year. Monthly sales across many restaurants were flat or down from 2025. Profitability growth also came in mixed.
The Iran War has dominated the headlines, with economic fallout raising the odds of a US recession, according to some economists. High gas prices contributed to a 3.3% rise in core inflation, and some restaurants are already seeing a rise in supplier delivery fees. While the stock market has recovered from its low on March 30 (as of 4/13), there’s plenty of reason to be cautious as we head into spring. |
Beer, Bubbles and Booze: What our EHS Data says about alcohol trends Since 2020, which marked an all-time high for alcohol consumption, alcohol sales have been on a slow but noticeable decline, driven largely by Millennials and Gen Z. That said, this is not a dramatic drop-off. According to another study, people are drinking less, but not by much, and this may be more of a normalization than a collapse. But even major distributors and spirits companies are feeling the shift, with layoffs and distillery closures beginning to reflect softer demand.
To understand it at the restaurant level, we analyzed alcohol sales growth across the past 24 months and compared it to overall sales trends. Here’s what stood out:
Beer is holding strong (and even gaining ground):In a bit of a surprise, many restaurants saw beer sales grow faster than overall sales. Value, familiarity and sessionability seem to be working in its favor.
Wine is a mixed bag:Wine performance varied widely. Some operators maintained steady sales in line with overall trends, while others saw more significant declines, suggesting shifting preferences or less frequent indulgence.
Liquor is lagging behind:Across the board, liquor sales struggled to keep pace with overall sales growth. In many cases, growth was slower, and in some, sales declined outright.
Guests are approaching beverage decisions with greater awareness, weighing cost, occasion and overall experience more carefully than in previous years. And for younger guests in particular, a night out simply costs more now, and that reality is forcing more selective choices about what makes the cut.
What Operators Can Do Next: Build a real non-alcoholic program: Not a placeholder, a profit center. Give it visibility and thoughtful pricing. Lean into “drink less, drink better.”: Focus on quality, storytelling and perceived value over pushing volume. Introduce lower-ABV and sessionable options: Spritzes, highballs and beer-forward offerings meet guests where they are. Rethink pricing strategy: Tiered pricing and bundled experiences can ease price sensitivity without cutting into margins.
Curious how this is showing up in your numbers? Let’s take a look together and turn your data into a plan. |
Dialing In Your Break-Even Sales Target One of the most important benchmarks for any restaurant is its break-even sales number. Knowing this figure is the difference between constantly searching for answers and operating with clarity and control. And while costs may shift week to week, your target does not have to.
What numbers to focus on to find your break-even:
The operators who know their number walk into each week differently. They know when they are pacing ahead, when they need to adjust and when something is off before it becomes a bigger problem.
Ready to stop guessing? We’ll calculate your break-even and turn it into a plan you can actually run your business on.
Know your number. Run your business better. We’ll show you how. |
What are we watching?
In between episodes of The Pitt and America's Culinary Cup we have been loving Family Meal, a roundtable of hospitality folks taking us behind the scenes of a different restaurant for each episode. Ari Bendersky leads unfiltered conversations about the business, the culture and the passion it takes to work at a restaurant. There are only three episodes but we hope for more and love the "inside baseball" vibe. | Where are we eating and drinking?
The EHS team is always eating out and enjoy checking out everything Chicago has to offer from the hot new thing to the old faves (some are clients, some aren't ...YET)
Lately, we have been obsessed with the scones at Geraldine's in Lincoln Square. All of the pastry is next level, homemade and the cupcakes are pure decadence but THESE SCONES!! Blueberry is a great gateway but the lemon-blackberry makes our hearts sing. |
We also can't wait to visit Soccer House Chicago!
Our newest client opens in West Town SATURDAY APRIL 17th!!
 EHS On The Town for Chicago Chefs Cook Liz, Kate and Chad sipped the sips and bit all of the bites at the I COOK FOR benefit last month. Thirty chef's participated with all of the proceeds going to their chosen cause. Our client, The Duck Inn, was there with chef Kevin Hickey serving up the tastiest duck-fat hot dogs in town. A great time for five great causes. |